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We introduce a novel scheme for automatically deriving synthetic walking (locomotion) and movement (steering and avoidance) behavior in simulation from simple trajectory samples. We use a combination of observed and recorded real‐world movement trajectory samples in conjunction with synthetic, agent‐generated, movement as inputs to a machine‐learning scheme. This scheme produces movement behavior for non‐sampled scenarios in simulation, for applications that can differ widely from the original collection settings. It does this by benchmarking a simulated pedestrian's relative behavioral geography, local physical environment, and neighboring agent‐pedestrians; using spatial analysis, spatial data access, classification, and clustering. The scheme then weights, trains, and tunes likely synthetic movement behavior, per‐agent, per‐location, per‐time‐step, and per‐scenario. To prove its usefulness, we demonstrate the task of generating synthetic, non‐sampled, agent‐based pedestrian movement in simulated urban environments, where the scheme proves to be a useful substitute for traditional transition‐driven methods for determining agent behavior. The potential broader applications of the scheme are numerous and include the design and delivery of location‐based services, evaluation of architectures for mobile communications technologies, what‐if experimentation in agent‐based models with hypotheses that are informed or translated from data, and the construction of algorithms for extracting and annotating space‐time paths in massive data‐sets. 相似文献
96.
Many of the decisions relating to future urban development require information on climate change risks to cities This review
of the academic and “grey” literature provides an overview assessment of the state of the art in the quantification and valuation
of climate risks at the city-scale. We find that whilst a small number of cities, mostly in OECD countries, have derived quantitative
estimates of the costs of climate change risks under alternative scenarios, this form of analysis is in its infancy. The climate
risks most frequently addressed in existing studies are associated with sea-level rise, health and water resources. Other
sectors such as energy, transport, and built infrastructure remain less studied. The review has also undertaken a case study
to examine the progress in two cities—London and New York—which are relatively advanced in the assessment of climate risks
and adaptation. The case studies show that these cities have benefited from stakeholder engagement at an early stage in their
risk assessments. They have also benefited from the development of specific institutional responsibilities for co-ordinating
such research from the outset. This involvement has been critical in creating momentum and obtaining resources for subsequent
in-depth analysis of sectoral impacts and adaptation needs..While low cost climate down-scaling applications would be useful
in future research, the greatest priority is to develop responses that can work within the high future uncertainty of future
climate change, to build resilience and maintain flexibility. This can best be used within the context of established risk
management practices. 相似文献
97.
Duanjun Lu L. White R. S. Reddy Quinton L. Williams Paul J. Croft 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2011,111(3-4):75-90
Three models, MM5, COAMPS, and WRF, have been applied for the warm season in 2003 and the cool season in 2003?C2004 to evaluate their performances. All models run over the same domain area covering the north Gulf Mexico and southeastern United States (US) region with the same spatial resolution of 27?km. It was found that the temporal variations of the mean error distribution and strength at 24 and 36?h were rather weak for surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed for all models. A warm bias in surface temperature forecasts dominated over land during the warm season, whereas a cool bias existed during the cool season. The MM5 and WRF produced negative biases of sea level pressure during the warm season and positive biases during the cool season while the COAMPS yielded a similar distribution of sea level pressure biases during both seasons. During both seasons, similar surface wind speed biases produced by each model included a high wind speed forecast over most areas by MM5 while the COAMPS and WRF yielded weak surface winds over the western Plains and stronger surface winds over the eastern Plains. Root-mean-squared errors revealed that the forecast of surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed were degraded with the increase of forecast time. For rainfall evaluation, it was found that the MM5 underpredicted seasonal precipitation while the COAMPS and WRF overpredicted. The bias scores revealed that the MM5 yielded an underprediction of the coverage of precipitation areas, especially for heavier rainfall events. The MM5 presented the lower threat score at lighter rainfall events compared to the COAMPS and WRF. For moderate and heavier thresholds, all models lacked forecast accuracy. The WRF accuracy in predicting precipitation was heavily dependent upon the performance of the selected cumulus parameterization scheme. Use of the Grell?CDevenyi and Bette?CMiller?CJanjic schemes helps suppress precipitation overprediction. 相似文献
98.
Jean‐Paul van Gestel Kevin D. Best Olav I. Barkved Jan H. Kommedal 《Geophysical Prospecting》2011,59(4):673-681
The frequent time‐lapse observations from the life of field seismic system across the Valhall field provide a wealth of information. The responses from the production and injection wells can be observed through time‐shift and amplitude changes. These observations can be compared to modelled synthetic seismic responses from a reservoir simulation model of the Valhall Field. The observed differences between the observations and the modelling are used to update and improve the history match of the reservoir model. The uncertainty of the resulting model is reduced and a more confident prediction of future reservoir performance is provided. A workflow is presented to convert the reservoir model to a synthetic seismic response and compare the results to the observed time‐lapse responses for any time range and area of interest. Correlation based match quality factors are calculated to quantify the visual differences. This match quality factor allows us to quantitatively compare alternative reservoir models to help identify the parameters that best match the seismic observations. Three different case studies are shown where this workflow has helped to reduce the uncertainty range associated with specific reservoir parameters. By updating various reservoir model parameters we have been able to improve the match to the observations and thereby improve the overall reservoir model predictability. The examples show positive results in a range of different reservoir modelling issues, which indicates the flexibility of this workflow and the ability to have an impact in most reservoir modelling challenges. 相似文献
99.
This paper describes the identification of finite dimensional, linear, time‐invariant models of a 4‐story building in the state space representation using multiple data sets of earthquake response. The building, instrumented with 31 accelerometers, is located on the University of California, Irvine campus. Multiple data sets, recorded during the 2005 Yucaipa, 2005 San Clemente, 2008 Chino Hills and 2009 Inglewood earthquakes, are used for identification and validation. Considering the response of the building as the output and the ground motion as the input, the state space models that represent the underlying dynamics of the building in the discrete‐time domain corresponding to each data set are identified. The time‐domain Eigensystem Realization Algorithm with the Observer/Kalman filter identification procedure are adopted in this paper, and the modal parameters of the identified models are consistently determined by constructing stabilization diagrams. The four state space models identified demonstrate that the response of the building is amplitude dependent with the response frequency and damping, being dependent on the magnitude of ground excitation. The practical application of this finding is that the consistency of this building response to future earthquakes can be quickly assessed, within the range of ground excitations considered (0.005g–0.074g), for consistency with prior response—this assessment of consistent response is discussed and demonstrated with reference to the four earthquake events considered in this study. Inclusion of data sets relating to future earthquakes will enable the findings to be extended to a wider range of ground excitation magnitudes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
100.
This paper summarizes the relevant results of the design, construction, testing, and implementation of a nominal 120 kN magnetorheological damper developed to control a free‐plan tall building in Santiago, Chile, equipped with two 160‐ton tuned masses. Cyclic as well as hybrid simulation tests were performed on the prototype damper. Global building responses using measured MR properties showed good correlation with analytical estimations. Also, a proposed physical controller for the MR damper was validated through hybrid and building pull‐back tests. Its performance is essentially equivalent to that of an LQR controller, but the information needed in its implementation is considerably less. Pull‐back tests of 10 cm amplitude were performed on one mass along the flexible edge of the building and its response controlled using the passive and controlled modes of the MR damper. The MR damper was capable of controlling the TM displacements very effectively, as well as the simulated building response for different ground motions and harmonic excitation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献